Tropical System Approaches Area.
Emergency Management continues to monitor the tropical system that is moving into the Gulf. The National Weather service advises that there is still a great deal of uncertainty with this system however the main threat will be heavy rain across the Southeast. They are predicting 5-7 inches of rain possible in our area. The potential for this number to go up or down depends on the development and movement of the system over the next few days. Currently, timing of the weather conditions entering the area will be Saturday night into Sunday evening with rain expected throughout the holiday weekend.
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A tropical disturbance across the Northwest Caribbean is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and approach the Northern Gulf Coast late this weekend. Regardless of whether this system develops into a tropical system, heavy rainfall is expected to overspread the region this weekend. Over the last couple of weeks, rainfall has been well above normal, and while this has ended drought conditions across the region, the excessive rainfall has resulted in rivers rising above base levels and soils becoming more saturated. As a result, the potential for flash flooding has increased as has the threat of river flooding. Through Saturday, typical afternoon summertime thunderstorms are expected, which may produce brief heavy rainfall in some locations. However, by Sunday as the tropical disturbance approaches the region, the potential for widespread heavy rainfall will increase. At this time, widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches are expected across the region with isolated heavier totals possible through Tuesday. This rain will be capable of causing flash flooding, especially if occurring over a short period of time. Additionally, the greatest potential for river flooding in this event is across river basins already running above normal, which include the Flint River, Chattahoochee River, Apalachicola River, Choctawhatchee River, and Pea River. The latest rainfall forecasts suggest that minor flooding is possible on these rivers as early as Monday. Should heavier rainfall amounts occur, more significant river flooding would be possible. A flood watch may be issued for portions of the area later this weekend. Stay alert through the weekend for any watches or warnings for this heavy rainfall event. For an assessment of current and future hydrologic information in the Tallahassee area of responsibility, visit our website at www.weather.gov/tallahassee and click on the rivers and lakes link.